Compute as the new oil
Observation
Datacentre capital expenditure has grown to a visible share of GDP growth in several economies. Utilisation figures for that capacity are rarely disclosed.
Narrative
Whoever controls compute controls the future. Build at any cost.
Alternative View
Oil is consumed once; compute depreciates whether used or not. Overbuilding is a known failure mode of infrastructure races.
Unknowns
What is actual utilisation of installed AI capacity? How fast does hardware depreciate against algorithmic efficiency gains? Who absorbs losses if demand projections miss?
Question
What happened to fibre capacity built in 1999, and is that history relevant here?
Why It Matters
Infrastructure bubbles transfer wealth and reshape industries regardless of whether the underlying technology succeeds.