AI and electricity demand
Observation
Grid operators in several regions have revised demand forecasts upward, citing datacentres. The forecasts vary widely and several previous revisions were later reduced.
Narrative
AI will consume the grid. Energy demand is exploding without bound.
Alternative View
Demand forecasts created during investment booms have historically overshot. Efficiency per token has fallen sharply year over year.
Unknowns
Which forecasts are based on signed interconnection agreements versus speculative requests? How much capacity is double-counted across utilities? What does per-query energy cost actually trend toward?
Question
Are you reading consumption data or capacity requests?
Why It Matters
Energy policy and public sentiment toward AI are being set by figures few people have inspected.