Observation

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Why insurance exists

First Principles · 15 MAY 2026
Observation

Insurance pools rare, large, unpredictable losses. A growing share of products now covers small, frequent, predictable costs — which is prepayment with overhead, not risk transfer.

Narrative

More insurance means more protection.

Alternative View

Coverage of predictable expenses converts a risk-pooling mechanism into an administrative layer that inflates the cost of the underlying service.

Unknowns

What fraction of premiums covers genuinely unpredictable events? How does administrative load scale with claim frequency? What would direct pricing of routine services look like?

Question

Which of your policies covers a risk, and which covers a certainty?

Why It Matters

Confusing prepayment with protection hides costs and removes price signals from entire sectors.