Observation

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What a job interview measures

First Principles · 22 MAY 2026
Observation

Meta-analyses consistently find unstructured interviews are weak predictors of job performance, yet they remain the central hiring instrument in most organisations.

Narrative

Interviews let us identify who will perform well.

Alternative View

Interviews may persist because they measure something else effectively: social similarity, confidence under observation, and the interviewer's feeling of agency.

Unknowns

What predicts performance in each specific role? What do structured alternatives cost to run? Why does the weak instrument feel so convincing from inside?

Question

What is your interview process selecting for, as opposed to what it claims to select for?

Why It Matters

The instrument that gates most careers is among the least examined tools in business.