What a job interview measures
Observation
Meta-analyses consistently find unstructured interviews are weak predictors of job performance, yet they remain the central hiring instrument in most organisations.
Narrative
Interviews let us identify who will perform well.
Alternative View
Interviews may persist because they measure something else effectively: social similarity, confidence under observation, and the interviewer's feeling of agency.
Unknowns
What predicts performance in each specific role? What do structured alternatives cost to run? Why does the weak instrument feel so convincing from inside?
Question
What is your interview process selecting for, as opposed to what it claims to select for?
Why It Matters
The instrument that gates most careers is among the least examined tools in business.