The de-dollarization story
Observation
Central bank gold purchases and bilateral non-dollar settlements have increased. The dollar's share of global reserves and trade invoicing has declined slowly and remains dominant.
Narrative
The dollar's collapse as reserve currency is imminent.
Alternative View
Diversification at the margin is observable; replacement is not. The story may be both directionally real and dramatically overstated.
Unknowns
What settlement share would indicate a structural break? Which alternatives can absorb reserve-scale flows? Over what timescale do reserve transitions historically occur?
Question
Is a 2% annual shift a collapse, a trend, or noise?
Why It Matters
Both denial and panic around reserve currency status move real portfolios and real policy.